A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
